Mathematical models of infectious diseases in livestock: Concepts and application to the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus strain type H5N1

Animal health governance faces new challenges as the ecology of infectious livestock diseases is changing (Tomley and Shirley 2009). Environmental and climate changes, intensification of livestock production, modification in land-use and agricultural practices, globalization of human travel, the development of the trade of livestock and livestock products have created conditions for an increase in the emergence and re-emergence of infectious agents in the last decades (Weiss and McMichael 2004; Randolph and Rogers 2010; Jones et al. 2008; Gibbs 2005). The frequency of emergence of new highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) has increased over the past 20 years, as well as the economic impact of associated outbreaks (Alexander and Brown 2009). Bluetongue virus serotypes have continuously increased their spatial distribution, specifically in a northern direction. Treatment-resistant strains, such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), have appeared. Numerous infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are endemic in many parts of the world, and may have a high impact on animal health and farmer livelihood. Moreover, they constrain the ability of affected countries to trade livestock and livestock-derived products. Production systems in developed countries are also vulnerable. For example, outbreaks of FMD in United Kingdom in 2001, classical swine fever in Holland in 1997/1998, and highly pathogenic avian influenza H7N7 in Holland in 2003 resulted in the loss of millions of animals, mainly as a result of culling of affected and exposed animals. Finally, infectious livestock diseases are a threat for public health: about 75% of human infectious agents that emerged in the last 25 years had an animal origin (King et al. 2006).