Meta-analysis of tropical surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum

A. P. Ballantyne, M. Lavine, J. Liu, P. B. Baker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The magnitude of tropical cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been the subject of uncertainty for over 25 years. We use principles of meta-analysis as an objective approach to reconcile estimates from different proxies. This approach treats each observation as a random estimate of the true mean and weights estimates by their reported precision. We assigned global uncertainties to proxies and derived a new regional standard deviation for temperatures calculated from the Sr/Ca ratio in tropical corals (σ = 1.4°C). Using a Bayesian spatial interpolation scheme, we estimate a mean cooling of LGM tropical sea surface temperatures of −2.7 ±0.5°C (±σ) and surface air temperatures of −5.4 ±0.3°C (±σ).
Original languageEnglish
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2005


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