TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling and forecasting the mortality of the very old
AU - Currie, I.D.
PY - 2011/1/1
Y1 - 2011/1/1
N2 - The forecasting of the future mortality of the very old presents additional challenges since data quality can be poor at such ages. We consider a two-factor model for stochastic mortality, proposed by Cairns, Blake and Dowd, which is particularly well suited to forecasting at very high ages. We consider an extension to their model which improves fit and also allows forecasting at these high ages. We illustrate our methods with data from the Continuous Mortality Investigation.
AB - The forecasting of the future mortality of the very old presents additional challenges since data quality can be poor at such ages. We consider a two-factor model for stochastic mortality, proposed by Cairns, Blake and Dowd, which is particularly well suited to forecasting at very high ages. We consider an extension to their model which improves fit and also allows forecasting at these high ages. We illustrate our methods with data from the Continuous Mortality Investigation.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84855184013
U2 - 10.2143/AST.41.2.2136983
DO - 10.2143/AST.41.2.2136983
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84855184013
SN - 0515-0361
VL - 41
SP - 419
EP - 427
JO - ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA
JF - ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA
IS - 2
ER -