Modelling the cost-effectiveness of adopting risk-stratified approaches to extended screening intervals in the national diabetic retinopathy screening programme in Scotland

Generation Scotland

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Abstract

AIMS: To assess the cost-effectiveness of adopting risk-stratified approaches to extended screening intervals in the national diabetic retinopathy screening programme in Scotland.

METHODS: A continuous-time hidden Markov model was fitted to national longitudinal screening data to derive transition probabilities between observed non-referable and referable retinopathy states. These were incorporated in a decision model simulating progression, costs and visual acuity outcomes for a synthetic cohort with a covariate distribution matching that of the Scottish diabetic screening population. The cost-effectiveness of adopting extended (2-year) screening for groups identified as low risk was then assessed over a 30-year time horizon.

RESULTS: Individuals with a current grade of no retinopathy on two consecutive screening episodes face the lowest risk of progressing to referable disease. For the cohort as a whole, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained for annual vs. biennial screening ranged from approximately £74 000 (for those with no retinopathy and a prior observed grade of mild or observable background retinopathy) to approximately £232 000 per quality-adjusted life year gained (for those with no retinopathy on two consecutive screening episodes). The corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the subgroup with Type 1 diabetes were substantially lower; approximately £22 000 to £85 000 per quality-adjusted life year gained, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Biennial screening for individuals with diabetes who have no retinopathy is likely to deliver significant savings for a very small increase in the risk of adverse visual acuity and quality of life outcomes. There is greater uncertainty regarding the long-term cost-effectiveness of adopting biennial screening in younger people with Type 1 diabetes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
JournalDiabetic Medicine
Early online date4 Apr 2016
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 4 Apr 2016

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