Modelling the impact of co-circulating low pathogenic avian influenza viruses on epidemics of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry

Sema Nickbakhsh, Matthew Hall, Ilaria Dorigatti, Samantha Lycett, Paolo Mulatti, Isabella Monne, Alice Fusaro, Mark Woolhouse, Andrew Rambaut, Rowland Kao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

It is well known that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses emerge through mutation of precursor low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in domestic poultry populations. The potential for immunological cross-protection between these pathogenic variants is recognised but the epidemiological impact during co-circulation is not well understood. Here we use mathematical models to investigate whether altered flock infection parameters consequent to primary LPAI infections can impact on the spread of HPAI at the population level. First we used mechanistic models reflecting the co-circulatory dynamics of LPAI and HPAI within a single commercial poultry flock. We found that primary infections with LPAI led to flock HPAI prevalence being maximised under a scenario of high but partial cross-protection. We then tested the population impact in spatially-explicit simulations motivated by a major avian influenza A(H7N1) epidemic that afflicted the Italian poultry industry in 1999-2001. We found that partial cross-protection can lead to a prolongation of HPAI epidemic duration. Our findings have implications for the control of HPAI in poultry particularly for settings in which LPAI and HPAI frequently co-circulate.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)27-34
Number of pages8
JournalEpidemics
Volume17
Issue numberDecember 2016
Early online date19 Oct 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2016

Keywords

  • Epidemiology
  • Interference
  • Cross-protection
  • Poultry
  • Mathematical modelsa
  • HONG-KONG
  • A VIRUS
  • H5N1
  • HEMAGGLUTININ
  • INTERFERENCE
  • TRANSMISSION
  • EMERGENCE
  • INFECTION
  • VIRULENCE
  • CHICKENS

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