TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the spread of scrapie in a sheep flock
T2 - Evidence for increased transmission during lambing seasons
AU - Touzeau, S.
AU - Chase-Topping, M. E.
AU - Matthews, L.
AU - Lajous, D.
AU - Eychenne, F.
AU - Foster, J. D.
AU - Simm, G.
AU - Elsen, J. M.
AU - Woolhouse, M. E.J.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2006/4
Y1 - 2006/4
N2 - Presence of scrapie infectivity in the placenta suggests the possibility of increased transmission of scrapie during the lambing season. This hypothesis was explored here using a mathematical model of scrapie transmission dynamics which has previously been successfully used to study several scrapie outbreaks in Scottish sheep flocks. It was applied here to the Langlade experimental sheep flock (INRA Toulouse, France), in which a natural scrapie epidemic started in 1993. Extensive data were available, including pedigree, scrapie histopathological diagnoses and PrP genotypes. Detailed simulations of the scrapie outbreak reveal that the observed patterns of seasonality in incidence can not be accounted for by seasonality in demography alone and provide strong support for the hypothesis of increased transmission during lambing. Observations from several other scrapie outbreaks also showing seasonal incidence patterns support these conclusions.
AB - Presence of scrapie infectivity in the placenta suggests the possibility of increased transmission of scrapie during the lambing season. This hypothesis was explored here using a mathematical model of scrapie transmission dynamics which has previously been successfully used to study several scrapie outbreaks in Scottish sheep flocks. It was applied here to the Langlade experimental sheep flock (INRA Toulouse, France), in which a natural scrapie epidemic started in 1993. Extensive data were available, including pedigree, scrapie histopathological diagnoses and PrP genotypes. Detailed simulations of the scrapie outbreak reveal that the observed patterns of seasonality in incidence can not be accounted for by seasonality in demography alone and provide strong support for the hypothesis of increased transmission during lambing. Observations from several other scrapie outbreaks also showing seasonal incidence patterns support these conclusions.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33645019331&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s00705-005-0666-y
DO - 10.1007/s00705-005-0666-y
M3 - Article
C2 - 16307175
AN - SCOPUS:33645019331
SN - 0304-8608
VL - 151
SP - 735
EP - 751
JO - Archives of Virology
JF - Archives of Virology
IS - 4
ER -