Motoric cognitive risk syndrome trajectories and incident dementia over 10 years

Background: Motoric Cognitive Risk (MCR) syndrome is a high-risk state for adverse health outcomes in older adults characterised by measured slow gait speed and self-reported cognitive complaints. The recent addition to the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 of robust dementia outcomes enabled us to assess the prognostic value of MCR for dementia and explore the various trajectories of participants diagnosed with MCR. Methods: We classified 680 community-dwelling participants free from dementia into non-MCR or MCR groups at mean [SD] age 76.3 [0.8] years. We used Cox and competing risk regression methods, adjusted for potential confounders, to evaluate the risk of developing all-cause incident dementia over 10 years of follow-up. Secondarily, we followed the trajectories for individuals with and without MCR at baseline and categorised them into subgroups based on whether MCR was still present at the next research wave, three years later. Results: The presence of MCR increased the risk of incident dementia (adjusted HR 2.34, 95%CI 1.14–4.78, p = 0.020), as did fewer years of education and higher depression symptoms. However, MCR has a heterogenous progression trajectory. The MCR progression subgroups each have different prognostic values for incident dementia. Conclusion: MCR showed similar prognostic ability for dementia in a Scottish cohort as for other populations. MCR could identify a target group for early interventions of modifiable risk factors to prevent incident dementia. This study illustrates the heterogeneous nature of MCR progression. Exploring the underlying reasons will be important work in future work.