Natural and anthropogenic causes of recent climate change

D. C. Hill, M. R. Allen, N. P. Gillett, S. F. B. Tett, P. A. Stott, G. S. Jones, W. Ingram, J. F. B. Mitchell, M. B. India (Editor), D. L. Bonillo (Editor)

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)


Previous workers have examined atmospheric vertical temperature and report anthropogenic influence on climate. However, none of these considered the influence of natural forcing factors which may have been an influence on surface temperatures. Two issues are addressed here. Firstly, whether the observed tropospheric warming might be explained by solar forcing and the observed stratospheric cooling by the effects of ozone depletion. Secondly, whether greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols provide a complete explanation of observed changes. In this paper, the method of optimal fingerprinting is employed to show that previous results of greenhouse gas influence on temperature are robust to the inclusion of solar forcing. We also show, in a diagnostic tailored for the 11-year solar cycle, that we can detect the influence of the solar cycle in recent vertical temperature structure and that the HadCM2 GCM may be underestimating the amplitude of the solar signal by a factor of 2 to 3.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDetecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change
EditorsM. B. India, D. L. Bonillo
PublisherSpringer-Verlag GmbH
Number of pages16
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-662-04313-4
ISBN (Print)978-3-642-07594-0
Publication statusPublished - 2001

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