Natural and anthropogenic causes of recent climate change

D. C. Hill; M. R. Allen; N. P. Gillett; S. F. B. Tett; P. A. Stott; G. S. Jones; W. Ingram; J. F. B. Mitchell; M. B. India; D. L. Bonillo

doi:10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_24

Natural and anthropogenic causes of recent climate change

D. C. Hill, M. R. Allen, N. P. Gillett, S. F. B. Tett, P. A. Stott, G. S. Jones, W. Ingram, J. F. B. Mitchell, M. B. India (Editor), D. L. Bonillo (Editor)

School of Geosciences

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter (peer-reviewed)

Abstract

Previous workers have examined atmospheric vertical temperature and report anthropogenic influence on climate. However, none of these considered the influence of natural forcing factors which may have been an influence on surface temperatures. Two issues are addressed here. Firstly, whether the observed tropospheric warming might be explained by solar forcing and the observed stratospheric cooling by the effects of ozone depletion. Secondly, whether greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols provide a complete explanation of observed changes. In this paper, the method of optimal fingerprinting is employed to show that previous results of greenhouse gas influence on temperature are robust to the inclusion of solar forcing. We also show, in a diagnostic tailored for the 11-year solar cycle, that we can detect the influence of the solar cycle in recent vertical temperature structure and that the HadCM2 GCM may be underestimating the amplitude of the solar signal by a factor of 2 to 3.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change
Editors	M. B. India, D. L. Bonillo
Publisher	Springer
Pages	275-290
Number of pages	16
Volume	III
ISBN (Electronic)	978-3-662-04313-4
ISBN (Print)	978-3-642-07594-0
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_24
Publication status	Published - 2001

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Hill, D. C., Allen, M. R., Gillett, N. P., Tett, S. F. B., Stott, P. A., Jones, G. S., Ingram, W., Mitchell, J. F. B., India, M. B. (Ed.), & Bonillo, D. L. (Ed.) (2001). Natural and anthropogenic causes of recent climate change. In M. B. India, & D. L. Bonillo (Eds.), Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change (Vol. III, pp. 275-290). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_24

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title = "Natural and anthropogenic causes of recent climate change",

abstract = "Previous workers have examined atmospheric vertical temperature and report anthropogenic influence on climate. However, none of these considered the influence of natural forcing factors which may have been an influence on surface temperatures. Two issues are addressed here. Firstly, whether the observed tropospheric warming might be explained by solar forcing and the observed stratospheric cooling by the effects of ozone depletion. Secondly, whether greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols provide a complete explanation of observed changes. In this paper, the method of optimal fingerprinting is employed to show that previous results of greenhouse gas influence on temperature are robust to the inclusion of solar forcing. We also show, in a diagnostic tailored for the 11-year solar cycle, that we can detect the influence of the solar cycle in recent vertical temperature structure and that the HadCM2 GCM may be underestimating the amplitude of the solar signal by a factor of 2 to 3.",

author = "Hill, {D. C.} and Allen, {M. R.} and Gillett, {N. P.} and Tett, {S. F. B.} and Stott, {P. A.} and Jones, {G. S.} and W. Ingram and Mitchell, {J. F. B.} and India, {M. B.} and Bonillo, {D. L.}",

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doi = "10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_24",

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pages = "275--290",

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TY - CHAP

T1 - Natural and anthropogenic causes of recent climate change

AU - Hill, D. C.

AU - Allen, M. R.

AU - Gillett, N. P.

AU - Tett, S. F. B.

AU - Stott, P. A.

AU - Jones, G. S.

AU - Ingram, W.

AU - Mitchell, J. F. B.

A2 - India, M. B.

A2 - Bonillo, D. L.

A2 - India, M. B.

A2 - Bonillo, D. L.

PY - 2001

Y1 - 2001

N2 - Previous workers have examined atmospheric vertical temperature and report anthropogenic influence on climate. However, none of these considered the influence of natural forcing factors which may have been an influence on surface temperatures. Two issues are addressed here. Firstly, whether the observed tropospheric warming might be explained by solar forcing and the observed stratospheric cooling by the effects of ozone depletion. Secondly, whether greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols provide a complete explanation of observed changes. In this paper, the method of optimal fingerprinting is employed to show that previous results of greenhouse gas influence on temperature are robust to the inclusion of solar forcing. We also show, in a diagnostic tailored for the 11-year solar cycle, that we can detect the influence of the solar cycle in recent vertical temperature structure and that the HadCM2 GCM may be underestimating the amplitude of the solar signal by a factor of 2 to 3.

AB - Previous workers have examined atmospheric vertical temperature and report anthropogenic influence on climate. However, none of these considered the influence of natural forcing factors which may have been an influence on surface temperatures. Two issues are addressed here. Firstly, whether the observed tropospheric warming might be explained by solar forcing and the observed stratospheric cooling by the effects of ozone depletion. Secondly, whether greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols provide a complete explanation of observed changes. In this paper, the method of optimal fingerprinting is employed to show that previous results of greenhouse gas influence on temperature are robust to the inclusion of solar forcing. We also show, in a diagnostic tailored for the 11-year solar cycle, that we can detect the influence of the solar cycle in recent vertical temperature structure and that the HadCM2 GCM may be underestimating the amplitude of the solar signal by a factor of 2 to 3.

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_24

DO - 10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_24

M3 - Chapter (peer-reviewed)

SN - 978-3-642-07594-0

VL - III

SP - 275

EP - 290

BT - Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change

PB - Springer

ER -

Natural and anthropogenic causes of recent climate change

Abstract

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