Paradoxical parsimony: How latent complexity favors theory simplicity

Tianwei Gong, Simon Valentin, Christopher G. Lucas, Neil R. Bramley

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract / Description of output

Investigating how people evaluate more or less complex causaltheories has been a focal point of research. However, previ-ous studies have either focused on token-level causation or re-stricted themselves to very small sets of explanatory variables.We provide a new approach for modeling theory selection thatforegrounds the balance between observed and latent structurein the mechanism being explained. We combine a Bayesianframework with program induction, allowing an unboundedand partially observable model space through sampling, andreflecting how a preference for simplicity emerges naturallyin this setting. Through simulation, we identify two rationalprinciples: (1) Simpler explanations should be favored as la-tent uncertainty (the number of hidden variables) increases; (2)latent structure is attributed a larger role when the observablepatterns become less compressible. We conducted a behavioralexperiment and found that human judgments tended to reflectthese principles, indicating that people are sensitive to latentuncertainty when selecting between explanations.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 46th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society
EditorsLarissa K Samuelson, Stefan Frank, Mariya Toneva, Allyson Mackey, Eliot Hazeltine
PublishereScholarship University of California
Pages3428-3434
Number of pages7
Volume46
Publication statusPublished - 2024
EventThe 46th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society - Postillion Hotel & Conference Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 24 Jul 202427 Jul 2024
https://cognitivesciencesociety.org/cogsci-2024

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society
Publisher eScholarship University of California
Volume46
ISSN (Electronic)1069-7977

Conference

ConferenceThe 46th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society
Abbreviated titleCOGSCI 2024
Country/TerritoryNetherlands
CityRotterdam
Period24/07/2427/07/24
Internet address

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

  • explanation
  • mechanism
  • program induction
  • simplicity
  • hidden variables
  • inductive reasoning

Cite this