Peace agreements in a changing climate: Three ways in which climate change and peace processes interact

Previous research has shown that climate change can exacerbate conflict drivers or, on the other hand, incentivise ‘environmental peacebuilding’. One might, therefore, expect to find references to climate issues in peace agreements. This study draws on the PA-X Peace Agreement Database to shed new light on climate–peace interactions. Only seven out of 2,003 peace agreements signed between 1990 and 2023 explicitly mention ‘climate change’. However, an analysis of provisions in 28 peace agreements reveals that climate–peace interactions are much more complex than the paucity of the term ‘climate change’ in agreements suggests. Based on PA-X data, I argue that there are three main ways in which climate change and peace processes interact: First, as existing literature shows, the consequences of climate change can affect conflict parties’ bargaining positions and lead to conflict (de-)escalation. Second, conflict parties agree on climate action – often implicitly and for political reasons. This article provides the first comparison of levels of climate action ambition in peace agreements, from incremental and transformational adaptation to mitigation. Third, the results of political bargaining in peace processes can have positive and negative unintended consequences for the climate. For example, although conflict de-escalation can produce a more conducive environment for climate action, its stabilising effect may also enable carbon-intensive economic activities.