Abstract / Description of output

Mortality prediction models support identifying older adults with short life expectancy for whom clinical care may need modifications. We systematically reviewed validations of mortality prediction models in older adults with up to three years of follow-up. We included 36 studies reporting 74 validations of 64 unique models. Model applicability was fair but validation risk of bias was mostly high, with 67·7% not reporting calibration. Morbidities were used as predictors by 70·0% of models, most commonly cardiovascular diseases. For 1-year prediction, 31/46 models had acceptable discrimination, but only one had excellent performance. Models with >20 predictors were more likely to have acceptable discrimination (risk ratio (RR) versus <10 predictors 1·68, 95%CI 1·06–2·66), as were models including sex (RR 1·75, 95%CI 1·12–2·73) or predicting risk during comprehensive geriatric assessment (RR 1·86, 95%CI 1·12–3·07). There is a need for derivation and validation of better-performing mortality prediction models in older people.

Keywords: Aged; Mortality; Risk; Validation Study; Systematic Review
Original languageEnglish
JournalThe Lancet Healthy Longevity
Early online date5 Feb 2024
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 5 Feb 2024


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