Planning Integrated Energy Systems in Local Communities Under Uncertainty

This paper develops an optimal planning method for local energy system (LES) based on energy hub model, considering uncertainty quantification with global sensitivity analysis (GSA) towards robust design. First, a deterministic planning optimization is conducted to acquire the basic case of installation decisions for LES. Second, uncertainty analysis was carried out based on deterministic results, with proper distribution of variation for uncertainty parameters introduced and large size sample collected with Monte Carlo method. Finally, GSA is conducted by calculating Sobol Index for each uncertainty sources to carry out quantitative investigation in terms of uncertainty impact on planning results. A case study for the optimal planning of a practical village in Northern Scotland is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed framework.