'Predictable Unpredictability': Catalysts, Challenges and Areas of Contention in Renegotiating Interim Governance

Robert Forster

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper


This paper explores the dynamics of renegotiating interim governance via peace agreements seeking to clarify the ‘predictable unpredictability’ of these processes by answering why conflict actors return to conflict, what areas of interim governance are contested, and in what way? Findings indicate that catalysts for renegotiation include the centralization of power by the incumbent, the emergence of new veto players, and heightened commitment problems. International actors play a crucial role in facilitating implementation and expanding access to non-armed actors. However, process tracing and the content of peace agreements highlight the elite nature of these processes emphasized by the spaces of contention including access to power, structures of governance, the distribution of seats and the right to contest future elections. From the perspective of increasing the inclusiveness of peace processes, findings highlight the necessity of counter-balancing elite interests by re-establishing mechanisms underpinning the ‘constitutional deal’ of negotiated settlements.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages23
Publication statusPublished - 14 Sep 2018
Event12th Pan-European Conference on International Relations: A New Hope: Back to the Future of International Relations - Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Duration: 12 Sep 201815 Sep 2018


Conference12th Pan-European Conference on International Relations
Abbreviated titleEISA
Country/TerritoryCzech Republic
Internet address


  • interim governance
  • peace processes
  • mediation
  • peace agreements
  • Constitutional law


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