Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people

Catherine Calvin; Timothy Wilkinson; John Starr; Catherine Sudlow; Saskia Hagenaars; Sarah Harris; Christian Schnier; Gail Davies; Chloe Fawns-Ritchie; Catharine Gale; John Gallacher; Ian Deary

doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014

Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people

Catherine Calvin, Timothy Wilkinson, John Starr, Catherine Sudlow, Saskia Hagenaars, Sarah Harris, Christian Schnier, Gail Davies, Chloe Fawns-Ritchie, Catharine Gale, John Gallacher, Ian Deary

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Prospective studies reporting associations between cognitive performance and subsequent incident dementia, have been subject to attrition bias. Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation.
METHODS: We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n≤488 130) and electronically-linked hospital inpatient and death records during three to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n=1051), Alzheimer’s disease (n=352), and vascular dementia (n=169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors.
RESULTS: We found associations of cognitive task performance with all-cause and cause-specific dementia (p<0.01); these were not accounted for by established risk factors. Cognitive data added up to 5% to the discriminative accuracy of ROC curve models; areas under the curve ranged from 82% to 86%.
DISCUSSION: This study offers robust evidence that brief cognitive testing could be a valuable addition to dementia-prediction models.

Original language	English
Journal	Alzheimer's & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer's Association
Early online date	13 Oct 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2019

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

Alzheimer’s disease
APOE e4
dementia
modifiable risk factors
polygenic risk
cognitive performace
ROC
vascular dementia

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10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014

CalvinEtalA&D2019PredictingIncidentDementiaAccepted author manuscript, 2.88 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC BY-NC-ND)

UKDP: Integrated DEmentiA research environment (IDEA)
van Beek, E. (Principal Investigator), Chandran, S. (Co-investigator), Deary, I. (Co-investigator), Ffrench-Constant, C. (Co-investigator) & Wardlaw, J. (Co-investigator)
MRC
1/04/15 → 30/06/16
Project: Research
RA2665 Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology Phase 2.
Wardlaw, J. (Principal Investigator)
1/09/13 → 31/08/19
Project: Research

Cite this

Calvin, C., Wilkinson, T., Starr, J., Sudlow, C., Hagenaars, S., Harris, S., Schnier, C., Davies, G., Fawns-Ritchie, C., Gale, C., Gallacher, J., & Deary, I. (2019). Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people. Alzheimer's & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer's Association. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014

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abstract = "INTRODUCTION: Prospective studies reporting associations between cognitive performance and subsequent incident dementia, have been subject to attrition bias. Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation. METHODS: We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n≤488 130) and electronically-linked hospital inpatient and death records during three to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n=1051), Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s disease (n=352), and vascular dementia (n=169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors.RESULTS: We found associations of cognitive task performance with all-cause and cause-specific dementia (p<0.01); these were not accounted for by established risk factors. Cognitive data added up to 5% to the discriminative accuracy of ROC curve models; areas under the curve ranged from 82% to 86%.DISCUSSION: This study offers robust evidence that brief cognitive testing could be a valuable addition to dementia-prediction models.",

keywords = "Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s disease, APOE e4, dementia, modifiable risk factors, polygenic risk, cognitive performace, ROC, vascular dementia",

author = "Catherine Calvin and Timothy Wilkinson and John Starr and Catherine Sudlow and Saskia Hagenaars and Sarah Harris and Christian Schnier and Gail Davies and Chloe Fawns-Ritchie and Catharine Gale and John Gallacher and Ian Deary",

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Calvin, C, Wilkinson, T, Starr, J, Sudlow, C, Hagenaars, S, Harris, S, Schnier, C, Davies, G , Fawns-Ritchie, C, Gale, C, Gallacher, J & Deary, I 2019, 'Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people', Alzheimer's & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer's Association. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014

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T1 - Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people

AU - Calvin, Catherine

AU - Wilkinson, Timothy

AU - Starr, John

AU - Sudlow, Catherine

AU - Hagenaars, Saskia

AU - Harris, Sarah

AU - Schnier, Christian

AU - Davies, Gail

AU - Fawns-Ritchie, Chloe

AU - Gale, Catharine

AU - Gallacher, John

AU - Deary, Ian

N1 - Crown copyright

PY - 2019/12/1

Y1 - 2019/12/1

N2 - INTRODUCTION: Prospective studies reporting associations between cognitive performance and subsequent incident dementia, have been subject to attrition bias. Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation. METHODS: We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n≤488 130) and electronically-linked hospital inpatient and death records during three to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n=1051), Alzheimer’s disease (n=352), and vascular dementia (n=169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors.RESULTS: We found associations of cognitive task performance with all-cause and cause-specific dementia (p<0.01); these were not accounted for by established risk factors. Cognitive data added up to 5% to the discriminative accuracy of ROC curve models; areas under the curve ranged from 82% to 86%.DISCUSSION: This study offers robust evidence that brief cognitive testing could be a valuable addition to dementia-prediction models.

AB - INTRODUCTION: Prospective studies reporting associations between cognitive performance and subsequent incident dementia, have been subject to attrition bias. Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation. METHODS: We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n≤488 130) and electronically-linked hospital inpatient and death records during three to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n=1051), Alzheimer’s disease (n=352), and vascular dementia (n=169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors.RESULTS: We found associations of cognitive task performance with all-cause and cause-specific dementia (p<0.01); these were not accounted for by established risk factors. Cognitive data added up to 5% to the discriminative accuracy of ROC curve models; areas under the curve ranged from 82% to 86%.DISCUSSION: This study offers robust evidence that brief cognitive testing could be a valuable addition to dementia-prediction models.

KW - Alzheimer’s disease

KW - APOE e4

KW - dementia

KW - modifiable risk factors

KW - polygenic risk

KW - cognitive performace

KW - ROC

KW - vascular dementia

U2 - 10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014

DO - 10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014

M3 - Article

SN - 1552-5260

JO - Alzheimer's & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer's Association

JF - Alzheimer's & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer's Association

ER -

Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people

Abstract

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

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Projects

UKDP: Integrated DEmentiA research environment (IDEA)

RA2665 Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology Phase 2.

Cite this