Predicting readmission and death after hospital discharge: a comparison of conventional frailty measurement with an electronic health record-based score

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Abstract

Background frailty measurement may identify patients at risk of decline after hospital discharge, but many measures require specialist review and/or additional testing. Objective to compare validated frailty tools with routine electronic health record (EHR) data at hospital discharge, for associations with readmission or death. Design observational cohort study. Setting hospital ward. Subjects consented cardiology inpatients ≥70 years old within 24 hours of discharge. Methods patients underwent Fried, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), PRISMA-7 and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) assessments. An EHR risk score was derived from the proportion of 31 possible frailty markers present. Electronic follow-up was completed for a primary outcome of 90-day readmission or death. Secondary outcomes were mortality and days alive at home (‘home time’) at 12 months. Results in total, 186 patients were included (79 ± 6 years old, 64% males). The primary outcome occurred in 55 (30%) patients. Fried (hazard ratio [HR] 1.47 per standard deviation [SD] increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.81, P < 0.001), CFS (HR 1.24 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.01–1.51, P = 0.04) and EHR risk scores (HR 1.35 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.02–1.78, P = 0.04) were independently associated with the primary outcome after adjustment for age, sex and co-morbidity, but the SPPB and PRISMA-7 were not. The EHR risk score was independently associated with mortality and home time at 12 months. Conclusions frailty measurement at hospital discharge identifies patients at risk of poorer outcomes. An EHR-based risk score appeared equivalent to validated frailty tools and may be automated to screen patients at scale, but this requires further validation.
Original languageEnglish
JournalAge and Ageing
Early online date25 Mar 2021
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 25 Mar 2021

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