Probabilistic Modelling of the Impact on Bus Punctuality of a Speed Limit Proposal in Edinburgh

Daniel Reijsbergen, Rajeev Ratan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

We propose a data-driven methodology for evaluating the impact of the introduction of a speed limit on the punctuality of bus services. In particular, we use high-frequency Automatic Vehicle Location data to parameterise a model that represents the movement of a bus along predefined patches of the route. We fit the probability distributions of the time spent in each patch to two classes of probability distributions: hyper-Erlang distributions, for which we use the tool HyperStar, and a variation of the three-parameter gamma distributions recommended by the Traffic Engineering Handbook. In both cases we obtain models that can be expressed using the framework of Probabilistic Timed Automata, allowing us to evaluate bus punctuality using the model checking tool UPPAAL. We conduct a case study involving a proposed speed limit in Edinburgh.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication9th EAI International Conference on Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Tools
PublisherACM
Number of pages13
ISBN (Print)978-1-63190-096-9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Jan 2016
Event9th EAI International Conference on Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Tools - Berlin, Germany
Duration: 14 Dec 201516 Dec 2015
http://archive.valuetools.org/2015/show/home

Conference

Conference9th EAI International Conference on Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Tools
Abbreviated titleVALUETOOLS'15
CountryGermany
CityBerlin
Period14/12/1516/12/15
Internet address

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