Probability of default and efficiency in cooperative banking

F Fiordelisi, Davide Mare

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Cooperative banks are small credit institutions, and they are more likely than commercial banks to default in periods of financial stability. Focusing on Italy (one of the largest cooperative banking markets), we analyze the contribution of efficiency to the estimation of the probability of default of cooperative banks. We estimate several measures of bank efficiency, and we run a discrete-time survival model to determine whether different managerial abilities play different roles in predicting bank failures. We show that higher efficiency levels (both in cost minimization and revenue and profit maximization) have a positive and statistically significant link with the probability of survival of cooperative banks. We also find that capital adequacy reduces the probability of default, supporting the view that higher capital buffers provide additional loss absorbency and reduce moral hazard problems.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)30-45
JournalJournal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money
Early online date1 Mar 2013
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2013


  • Bank failure
  • Small banks
  • Efficiency measures
  • Hazard model


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