Protective factors in violence risk assessment: Predictive validity of the SAPROF and HCR-20V3

Clare Neil, Suzanne O'Rourke, Nuno Monteiro da Rocha Bravo Ferreira, Liz Flynn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Research and practice in violence risk assessment in forensic mental health primarily focuses on risk factors; however consideration of protective factors may improve the accuracy and utility of assessments. Using a pseudo-prospective design, the predictive and incremental validity of protective factors was explored using the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) and Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20V3) in 75 male inpatients in a secure setting. Over a twelve month period, protective factors significantly predicted the absence of inpatient (institutional) violence and risk factors, particularly dynamic factors, predicted the presence of violence. Hierarchical logistic regression did not establish the incremental validity of the SAPROF. Preliminary evidence for the predictive and incremental validity of the Integrative Final Risk Judgment was found with patients categorised as high risk being 33.6 times more likely to be violent than those rated low risk. High risk ratings were associated with fewer protective factors and more risk factors. Therefore, whilst dynamic risk factors are clear targets for risk management, consideration of protective factors may contribute to overall estimates of risk and provide additional targets for intervention.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)84-102
Number of pages19
JournalInternational journal of forensic mental health
Volume19
Issue number1
Early online date7 Aug 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 Jan 2020

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

  • violence risk
  • assessment
  • protective factors
  • SAPROF
  • HCR-20

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