Quantifying geological CO₂ storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

The Storage Security Calculator (SSC) is a tool to simulate the long-term (10kyr) security of CO2 storage at a basin scale. Simulations show that CO2 storage in regions with moderate abandoned well densities and that are regulated using current best practice will retain 96% of the injected CO2 over 10,000 years in more than half of cases, with maximum leakage of 9.6% in fewer than 5% of cases. Poorly unregulated storage is less secure, but over 10,000 years, less than 27% of injected CO2 leaks in half of the simulations; up to 34% leaks in just 5% of cases. This leakage is primarily through undetected and poorly abandoned legacy wells, and could be reduced through effective leak identification and prompt remediation of leakage. Natural subsurface immobilisation means that this leakage will not continue indefinitely. Regulators can most effectively improve CO2 storage security by identifying and monitoring abandoned wells, and perform reactive remediation should they leak. Geological storage of CO2 is a secure, resilient and feasible option for climate mitigation even in overly pessimistic poorly regulated storage scenarios and thus CO2 storage can effectively contribute to meeting the Paris 2015 target.