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Abstract
Background
Avian influenza virus (AIV) causes both severe outbreaks and endemic disease among poultry and has caused sporadic human infections in Asia, furthermore the routes of transmission in avian species between geographic regions can be numerous and complex. Using nucleotide sequences from the internal protein coding segments of AIV, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic study to uncover regional routes of transmission and factors predictive of the rate of viral diffusion within China.
Results
We found that the Central area and Pan-Pearl River Delta were the two main sources of AIV diffusion, while the East Coast areas especially the Yangtze River delta, were the major targets of viral invasion. Next we investigated the extent to which economic, agricultural, environmental and climatic regional data was predictive of viral diffusion by fitting phylogeographic discrete trait models using generalised linear models.
Conclusions
Our results highlighted that the economic-agricultural predictors, especially the poultry population density and the number of farm product markets, are the key determinants of spatial diffusion of AIV in China; high human density and freight transportation are also important predictors of high rates of viral transmission; Climate features (e.g. temperature) were correlated to the viral invasion in the destination to some degree; while little or no impacts were found from natural environment factors (such as surface water coverage). This study uncovers the risk factors and enhances our understanding of the spatial dynamics of AIV in bird populations.
Avian influenza virus (AIV) causes both severe outbreaks and endemic disease among poultry and has caused sporadic human infections in Asia, furthermore the routes of transmission in avian species between geographic regions can be numerous and complex. Using nucleotide sequences from the internal protein coding segments of AIV, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic study to uncover regional routes of transmission and factors predictive of the rate of viral diffusion within China.
Results
We found that the Central area and Pan-Pearl River Delta were the two main sources of AIV diffusion, while the East Coast areas especially the Yangtze River delta, were the major targets of viral invasion. Next we investigated the extent to which economic, agricultural, environmental and climatic regional data was predictive of viral diffusion by fitting phylogeographic discrete trait models using generalised linear models.
Conclusions
Our results highlighted that the economic-agricultural predictors, especially the poultry population density and the number of farm product markets, are the key determinants of spatial diffusion of AIV in China; high human density and freight transportation are also important predictors of high rates of viral transmission; Climate features (e.g. temperature) were correlated to the viral invasion in the destination to some degree; while little or no impacts were found from natural environment factors (such as surface water coverage). This study uncovers the risk factors and enhances our understanding of the spatial dynamics of AIV in bird populations.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 16 |
| Journal | BMC Evolutionary Biology |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Early online date | 13 Jan 2017 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 13 Jan 2017 |
Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)
- AVIAN INFLUENZA
- PHYLOGEOGRAPHY
- general linear model
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'Quantifying predictors for the spatial diffusion of avian influenza virus in China'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 2 Finished
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Start-up funds for Career Track Fellows
Hume, D. (Principal Investigator)
1/10/14 → 31/12/17
Project: Research
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Innate immunity and endemic diseases in livestock species
Collie, D. (Principal Investigator), Beard, P. (Co-investigator), Bishop, S. (Co-investigator), Bronsvoort, M. (Co-investigator), Burt, D. (Co-investigator), Fitzgerald, R. (Co-investigator), Freeman, T. (Co-investigator), Gally, D. (Co-investigator), Gill, A. (Co-investigator), Glass, E. (Co-investigator), Hocking, P. (Co-investigator), Hope, J. (Co-investigator), Hume, D. (Co-investigator), Kaiser, P. (Co-investigator), Mabbott, N. (Co-investigator), McLachlan, G. (Co-investigator), Morrison, L. (Co-investigator), Stevens, J. (Co-investigator), Stevens, M. (Co-investigator) & Watson, M. (Co-investigator)
1/04/12 → 31/03/17
Project: Research
Profiles
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Samantha Lycett
- Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies - Personal Chair of Pathogen Phylodynamics
Person: Academic: Research Active