TY - JOUR
T1 - Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases
AU - NTD Modelling Consortium
AU - Hollingsworth, T Déirdre
AU - Adams, Emily R
AU - Anderson, Roy M
AU - Atkins, Katherine
AU - Bartsch, Sarah
AU - Basáñez, María-Gloria
AU - Behrend, Matthew
AU - Blok, David J
AU - Chapman, Lloyd A C
AU - Coffeng, Luc
AU - Courtenay, Orin
AU - Crump, Ron E
AU - de Vlas, Sake J
AU - Dobson, Andy
AU - Dyson, Louise
AU - Farkas, Hajnal
AU - Galvani, Alison P
AU - Gambhir, Manoj
AU - Gurarie, David
AU - Irvine, Michael A
AU - Jervis, Sarah
AU - Keeling, Matt J
AU - Kelly-Hope, Louise
AU - King, Charles
AU - Lee, Bruce Y
AU - Le Rutte, Epke A
AU - Lietman, Thomas M
AU - Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial
AU - Medley, Graham F
AU - Michael, Edwin
AU - Pandey, Abhishek
AU - Peterson, Jennifer K
AU - Pinsent, Amy
AU - Porco, Travis C
AU - Richardus, Jan Hendrik
AU - Reimer, Lisa
AU - Rock, Kat S
AU - Singh, Brajendra K
AU - Stolk, Wilma
AU - Swaminathan, Subramanian
AU - Torr, Steve J
AU - Townsend, Jeffrey
AU - Truscott, James
AU - Walker, Martin
AU - Zoueva, Alexandra
PY - 2015/12/9
Y1 - 2015/12/9
N2 - Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.
AB - Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.
KW - Biostatistics
KW - Communicable Disease Control/methods
KW - Disease Eradication
KW - Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control
KW - Epidemiologic Methods
KW - Humans
KW - Models, Theoretical
KW - Neglected Diseases/epidemiology
U2 - 10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1
DO - 10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1
M3 - Article
C2 - 26652272
SN - 1756-3305
VL - 8
SP - 630
JO - Parasites and Vectors
JF - Parasites and Vectors
ER -