@article{cae751eebfef43f3bb8b851c12b34ea2,
title = "Range shifts in a foundation sedge potentially induce large Arctic ecosystem carbon losses and gains",
abstract = "Foundation species have disproportionately large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. As a result, future changes to their distribution may be important determinants of ecosystem carbon (C) cycling in a warmer world. We assessed the role of a foundation tussock sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) as a climatically vulnerable C stock using field data, a machine learning ecological niche model, and an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Field data indicated that tussock density has decreased by 1/40.97 tussocks per m2 over the past 1/438 years on Alaska's North Slope from 1/41981 to 2019. This declining trend is concerning because tussocks are a large Arctic C stock, which enhances soil organic layer C stocks by 6.9% on average and represents 745 Tg C across our study area. By 2100, we project that changes in tussock density may decrease the tussock C stock by 41% in regions where tussocks are currently abundant (e.g. -0.8 tussocks per m2 and -85 Tg C on the North Slope) and may increase the tussock C stock by 46% in regions where tussocks are currently scarce (e.g. +0.9 tussocks per m2 and +81 Tg C on Victoria Island). These climate-induced changes to the tussock C stock were comparable to, but sometimes opposite in sign, to vegetation C stock changes predicted by an ensemble of TBMs. Our results illustrate the important role of tussocks as a foundation species in determining future Arctic C stocks and highlight the need for better representation of this species in TBMs.",
keywords = "Arctic, carbon cycle, carbon stocks, climate change, Eriophorum vaginatum, tundra",
author = "Curasi, {Salvatore R.} and Ned Fetcher and Hewitt, {Rebecca E.} and Lafleur, {Peter M.} and Loranty, {Michael M.} and Mack, {Michelle C.} and May, {Jeremy L.} and Myers-Smith, {Isla H.} and Natali, {Susan M.} and Oberbauer, {Steven F.} and Parker, {Thomas C.} and Oliver Sonnentag and {Vargas Zesati}, {Sergio A.} and Wullschleger, {Stan D.} and Rocha, {Adrian V.}",
note = "Funding Information: Thanks to A D McGuire, K Schaefer, and G Shaver for their helpful comments and R An, S Angers-Blondin, J Assmann, B Blakely, J Boyle, D Dech, M Grabowski, C Hammack, N Ho, I Klupar, S Lehtonen, H Long, M Melendez, E Niklinska, H Thomas, S Unger, C Vizza, M Williams, and N Zimov, for their assistance. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (DEB 1556772 and 2103539 to A V R, DGE 1841556 to S RC, PLR 1418010 to N F), the University of Notre Dame, Fulbright (open study/research grant to S R C), National Geographic (Young explorer grant to S R C), the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the Department of Energy Office of Science, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (SERFC to P M L) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M016323/1 to I M). We also thank the World Climate Research Programme, the Permafrost Carbon Network, Toolik Field Station, the Arctic LTER (NSF/PLR 1637459), the North East Science Station, BP Exploration Alaska, Herschel Island–Qikiqtaruk Territorial Park, and the Inuvialuit people. The data used in this publication will be made available through the NSF Arctic Data Center . Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.",
year = "2022",
month = apr,
day = "4",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/ac6005",
language = "English",
volume = "17",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9318",
publisher = "IOP Publishing",
number = "4",
}