Rare Event Simulation for Highly Dependable Systems with Fast Repairs

Daniël Reijsbergen, Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Werner R. W. Scheinhardt, Boudewijn R. Haverkort

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract / Description of output

Stochastic model checking has been used recently to assess, among others, dependability measures for a variety of systems. However, the employed numerical methods, as, e.g., supported by model checking tools such as PRISM and MRMC, suffer from the state-space explosion problem. The main alternative is statistical model checking, which uses standard simulation, but this performs poorly when small probabilities need to be estimated. Therefore, we propose a method based on importance sampling to speed up the simulation process in cases where the failure probabilities are small due to the high speed of the system's repair units. This setting arises naturally in Markovian models of highly dependable systems. We show that our method compares favourably to standard simulation, to existing importance sampling techniques and to the numerical techniques of PRISM.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationQEST 2010, Seventh International Conference on the Quantitative Evaluation of Systems, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA, 15-18 September 2010
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)978-1-4244-8082-1
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2010


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