Recurrent flow patterns as a basis for two-dimensional turbulence: prediction statistics from structures

A dynamical systems approach to turbulence envisions the flow as a trajectory through a high-dimensional state space transiently visiting the neighbourhoods of unstable simple invariant solutions (E. Hopf, Commun. Appl. Maths 1, 303, 1948). The hope has always been to turn this appealing picture into a predictive framework where the statistics of the flow follows from a weighted sum of the statistics of each simple invariant solution. Two outstanding obstacles have prevented this goal from being achieved: (1) paucity of known solutions and (2) the lack of a rational theory for predicting the required weights. Here we describe a method to substantially solve these problems, and thereby provide the first compelling evidence that the PDFs of a fully developed turbulent flow can be reconstructed with a set of unstable periodic orbits. Our new method for finding solutions uses automatic differentiation, with high-quality guesses constructed by minimising a trajectory-dependent loss function. We use this approach to find hundreds of new solutions in turbulent, two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow. Robust statistical predictions are then computed by learning weights after converting a turbulent trajectory into a Markov chain for which the states are individual solutions, and the nearest solution to a given snapshot is determined using a deep convolutional autoencoder. To our knowledge, this is the first time the PDFs of a spatio-temporally-chaotic system have been successfully reproduced with a set of simple invariant states, and provides a fascinating connection between self-sustaining dynamical processes and the more well-known statistical properties of turbulence.