Reframing the debate: A question of probability, not of likelihood ratio

Alex Biedermann; Silvia Bozza; Franco Taroni; Colin Aitken

doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2016.05.008

Reframing the debate: A question of probability, not of likelihood ratio

Alex Biedermann, Silvia Bozza, Franco Taroni, Colin Aitken

School of Mathematics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract / Description of output

Evidential value is measured by a likelihood ratio. This ratio has two components, the probability, or probability density, of the evidence if the prosecution proposition is true and the probability (density) of the evidence if the defence proposition is true. It takes the form of a single value, even if these probabilities are subjective measures of belief of the reporting forensic scientist.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	392-396
Journal	Science & Justice
Volume	56
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2016.05.008
Publication status	Published - 5 Sept 2016

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10.1016/j.scijus.2016.05.008

Cite this

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title = "Reframing the debate: A question of probability, not of likelihood ratio",

abstract = "Evidential value is measured by a likelihood ratio. This ratio has two components, the probability, or probability density, of the evidence if the prosecution proposition is true and the probability (density) of the evidence if the defence proposition is true. It takes the form of a single value, even if these probabilities are subjective measures of belief of the reporting forensic scientist.",

author = "Alex Biedermann and Silvia Bozza and Franco Taroni and Colin Aitken",

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AU - Bozza, Silvia

AU - Taroni, Franco

AU - Aitken, Colin

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AB - Evidential value is measured by a likelihood ratio. This ratio has two components, the probability, or probability density, of the evidence if the prosecution proposition is true and the probability (density) of the evidence if the defence proposition is true. It takes the form of a single value, even if these probabilities are subjective measures of belief of the reporting forensic scientist.

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DO - 10.1016/j.scijus.2016.05.008

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