SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN UK UNIVERSITY STUDENTS: LESSONS FROM1SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 2020 AND MODELLING INSIGHTS FOR FUTURE2STUDENT RETURN

Jessica Enright; Edward M Hill; Helena B Stage; Kirsty J Bolton; Emily J Nixon; Emma L  Fairbanks; Maria L Tang; llen  Brooks-Pollock; Louise Dyson; Chris J Budd; Rebecca B Hoyle; Lars Schewe; Julia R. Gog; Michael J Tildesley

doi:10.1098/rsos.210310

SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN UK UNIVERSITY STUDENTS: LESSONS FROM1SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 2020 AND MODELLING INSIGHTS FOR FUTURE2STUDENT RETURN

Jessica Enright, Edward M Hill, Helena B Stage, Kirsty J Bolton, Emily J Nixon, Emma L Fairbanks, Maria L Tang, llen Brooks-Pollock, Louise Dyson, Chris J Budd, Rebecca B Hoyle, Lars Schewe, Julia R. Gog, Michael J Tildesley

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Abstract

In this paper we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings usingmultiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led tospillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distributionof outbreaks in universities in late 2020 were consistent with the expected importation of infection from arrivingstudents. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission.The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimesspillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the localpopulation. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. Wefound the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms ofreducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation are likely to be much moreimportant for reducing transmission during term time. Finally we explored strategies for testing students in thecontext of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a majoroutbreak

Original language	English
Article number	210310
Number of pages	37
Journal	Royal Society Open Science
Volume	8
Issue number	8
Early online date	4 Aug 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210310
Publication status	Published - 31 Aug 2021

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Enright, J., Hill, E. M., Stage, H. B., Bolton, K. J., Nixon, E. J., Fairbanks, E. L., Tang, M. L., Brooks-Pollock, L., Dyson, L., Budd, C. J., Hoyle, R. B., Schewe, L., Gog, J. R., & Tildesley, M. J. (2021). SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN UK UNIVERSITY STUDENTS: LESSONS FROM1SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 2020 AND MODELLING INSIGHTS FOR FUTURE2STUDENT RETURN. Royal Society Open Science, 8(8), Article 210310. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210310

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title = "SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN UK UNIVERSITY STUDENTS: LESSONS FROM1SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 2020 AND MODELLING INSIGHTS FOR FUTURE2STUDENT RETURN",

abstract = "In this paper we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings usingmultiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led tospillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distributionof outbreaks in universities in late 2020 were consistent with the expected importation of infection from arrivingstudents. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission.The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimesspillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the localpopulation. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. Wefound the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms ofreducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation are likely to be much moreimportant for reducing transmission during term time. Finally we explored strategies for testing students in thecontext of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a majoroutbreak",

author = "Jessica Enright and Hill, {Edward M} and Stage, {Helena B} and Bolton, {Kirsty J} and Nixon, {Emily J} and Fairbanks, {Emma L} and Tang, {Maria L} and llen Brooks-Pollock and Louise Dyson and Budd, {Chris J} and Hoyle, {Rebecca B} and Lars Schewe and Gog, {Julia R.} and Tildesley, {Michael J}",

year = "2021",

month = aug,

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doi = "10.1098/rsos.210310",

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Enright, J, Hill, EM, Stage, HB, Bolton, KJ, Nixon, EJ, Fairbanks, EL, Tang, ML, Brooks-Pollock, L, Dyson, L, Budd, CJ, Hoyle, RB, Schewe, L, Gog, JR & Tildesley, MJ 2021, 'SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN UK UNIVERSITY STUDENTS: LESSONS FROM1SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 2020 AND MODELLING INSIGHTS FOR FUTURE2STUDENT RETURN', Royal Society Open Science, vol. 8, no. 8, 210310. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210310

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AU - Hill, Edward M

AU - Stage, Helena B

AU - Bolton, Kirsty J

AU - Nixon, Emily J

AU - Fairbanks, Emma L

AU - Tang, Maria L

AU - Brooks-Pollock, llen

AU - Dyson, Louise

AU - Budd, Chris J

AU - Hoyle, Rebecca B

AU - Schewe, Lars

AU - Gog, Julia R.

AU - Tildesley, Michael J

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N2 - In this paper we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings usingmultiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led tospillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distributionof outbreaks in universities in late 2020 were consistent with the expected importation of infection from arrivingstudents. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission.The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimesspillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the localpopulation. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. Wefound the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms ofreducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation are likely to be much moreimportant for reducing transmission during term time. Finally we explored strategies for testing students in thecontext of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a majoroutbreak

AB - In this paper we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings usingmultiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led tospillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distributionof outbreaks in universities in late 2020 were consistent with the expected importation of infection from arrivingstudents. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission.The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimesspillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the localpopulation. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. Wefound the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms ofreducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation are likely to be much moreimportant for reducing transmission during term time. Finally we explored strategies for testing students in thecontext of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a majoroutbreak

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DO - 10.1098/rsos.210310

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JO - Royal Society Open Science

JF - Royal Society Open Science

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ER -

SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN UK UNIVERSITY STUDENTS: LESSONS FROM1SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 2020 AND MODELLING INSIGHTS FOR FUTURE2STUDENT RETURN

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