Abstract
Background
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of clinical pneumonia among infants and young children. We aimed to describe RSV seasonality in 13 European countries and examine its association with meteorological factors.
Methods
We included weekly RSV seasonality data in 13 European countries between Week 40, 2010 and Week 39, 2019. We modelled weekly RSV activity with meteorological factors using data from the 2010/11 season to the 2017/18 season; predicted the weekly RSV activity of the 2018/19 season across 41 European countries; and validated our prediction using empirical data from the 2018/19 season.
Results
All the countries included had clear annual wintertime RSV seasons with a longitudinal gradient in RSV onset (Pearson’s correlation coefficient, r = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.80); RSV season started 3.8 weeks later (95% CI: –0.5 to 8.0) in countries in the east than the west of Europe. RSV season duration ranged 8–18 weeks across seasons and countries. Lower temperature and higher relative humidity were associated with higher RSV activity, lagged by 14 days. Through external validation, the prediction error in the RSV season onset was –2.4±3.2 weeks. Similar longitudinal gradients in RSV onset were predicted by our model for the 2018/19 season across 41 European countries (r = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.16 to 0.66).
Conclusion
Meteorological factors, such as temperature and relative humidity, could be used for early warning of RSV season onset. Our findings may inform health-care services planning and the optimisation of RSV immunisation strategies in Europe.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of clinical pneumonia among infants and young children. We aimed to describe RSV seasonality in 13 European countries and examine its association with meteorological factors.
Methods
We included weekly RSV seasonality data in 13 European countries between Week 40, 2010 and Week 39, 2019. We modelled weekly RSV activity with meteorological factors using data from the 2010/11 season to the 2017/18 season; predicted the weekly RSV activity of the 2018/19 season across 41 European countries; and validated our prediction using empirical data from the 2018/19 season.
Results
All the countries included had clear annual wintertime RSV seasons with a longitudinal gradient in RSV onset (Pearson’s correlation coefficient, r = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.80); RSV season started 3.8 weeks later (95% CI: –0.5 to 8.0) in countries in the east than the west of Europe. RSV season duration ranged 8–18 weeks across seasons and countries. Lower temperature and higher relative humidity were associated with higher RSV activity, lagged by 14 days. Through external validation, the prediction error in the RSV season onset was –2.4±3.2 weeks. Similar longitudinal gradients in RSV onset were predicted by our model for the 2018/19 season across 41 European countries (r = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.16 to 0.66).
Conclusion
Meteorological factors, such as temperature and relative humidity, could be used for early warning of RSV season onset. Our findings may inform health-care services planning and the optimisation of RSV immunisation strategies in Europe.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal | Eurosurveillance |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue number | 16 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 21 Apr 2022 |