Self-Excitation in the Solar Flare Waiting Time Distribution

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Abstract / Description of output

Solar flares release high amounts of energy into the solar system and can negatively impact earth based systems through their effects on satellites and power systems. It is hence important to un-derstand and forecast their occurrence. The solar are waiting time distribution (WTD) defines the amount of time which elapses between the occurrence of successive flares and hence provides a start-ing point for forecasts and risk assessment. Previous research has hypothesised that the observed (WTD) can be derived from a simple model which posits that ares follow a nonstationary Poisson process. This Poissonian assumption has implications for fundamental physical theories about the origin of flares, since it is a direct consequence of the widely studied avalanche model. However in this paper we call the Poissonian assumption into question, by showing that the occurrence of solar flares seems to have a substantial amount of burstiness and self-exication that continues to exist even when controlling for the solar cycle. This leads to a strong non-Poissonian dependence between the occurrence time of successive flares.
Original languageEnglish
Article number124775
Number of pages8
JournalPhysica a-Statistical mechanics and its applications
Volume556
Early online date2 Jun 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Oct 2020

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