TY - JOUR
T1 - Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
AU - Hanna, Edward
AU - Topál, Dániel
AU - Box, Jason E.
AU - Buzzard, Sammie
AU - Christie, Frazer D.W.
AU - Hvidberg, Christine
AU - Morlighem, Mathieu
AU - De Santis, Laura
AU - Silvano, Alessandro
AU - Colleoni, Florence
AU - Sasgen, Ingo
AU - Banwell, Alison F.
AU - van den Broeke, Michiel R.
AU - DeConto, Robert
AU - De Rydt, Jan
AU - Goelzer, Heiko
AU - Gossart, Alexandra
AU - Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar
AU - Lindbäck, Katrin
AU - Miles, Bertie
AU - Mottram, Ruth
AU - Pattyn, Frank
AU - Reese, Ronja
AU - Rignot, Eric
AU - Srivastava, Aakriti
AU - Sun, Sainan
AU - Toller, Justin
AU - Tuckett, Peter A.
AU - Ultee, Lizz
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors are grateful to the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate & Cryosphere core project, the International Arctic Science Committee and SCAR for co-sponsoring an ISMASS workshop that led to this collaboration. E.H. and A. Silvano acknowledge funding from NERC (NE/W005875/1, NE/Y000129/1 and NE/V014285/1). F.D.W.C. acknowledges funding from the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation. R.R. was supported by the TiPACCs project, which receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 820575. J.D.R. was supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (grant agreement no MR/W011816/1). H.G. received funding from the EU’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT and the Research Council of Norway under projects 295046 and 324639. L.D.S. acknowledges funding from the PNRA19_00022 project. F.C. acknowledges funding from the PNRA18_00002 project and from the SCAR INSTANT Programme. R.M. received funding from the EU’s Horizon Europe Programme under grant agreement number 101060452, OCEAN:ICE. I.S. acknowledges funding by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF). A.G. acknowledges financial support from the New Zealand Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (grant number ANTA1801; Antarctic Science Platform). The authors thank S. Hanna for the help with figure preparation.
Publisher Copyright:
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PY - 2024/3/1
Y1 - 2024/3/1
N2 - The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.
AB - The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.
U2 - 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
DO - 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:85184402942
SN - 2662-138X
VL - 5
SP - 193
EP - 210
JO - Nature Reviews Earth and Environment
JF - Nature Reviews Earth and Environment
IS - 3
ER -