Simulating Land-Use Change in China from a Global Perspective

This chapter explores land use change in China using a Global Food System Model (GLOBFOOD). The model links drivers of population growth and socio-economic development to agricultural yield changes and alternative national and international environmental policies. Comparison with historical data (over the past 30 years) suggests that the model is reasonably good at reproducing changes in food consumption in China and consequent crop production with prescribed population, GDP and yield data. The model simulates a decline in forest area, which results from the increased demand for arable land in response to higher production demand. This is different from the observed trend of increasing forest area partly because the model excludes new plantation, the main source of new forest in China. Application of a simple business-as-usual scenario suggests that GLOBFOOD could be used to project future land use change at the country level from a global-level consideration of human-environment interactions.