Spatio-temporal epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (subtype H5N1) in poultry in eastern India

Madhur S. Dhingra, Ravi Dissanayake, Ajender Bhagat Negi, Mohinder Oberoi, David Castellan, Michael Thrusfield, Catherine Linard, Marius Gilbert

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


In India, majority outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 have occurred in eastern states of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. This study aimed to identify disease clusters and risk factors of HPAI H5N1 in these states, for targeted surveillance and disease control. A spatial scan statistic identified two significant disease clusters in West Bengal and Assam, occurring during January and November-December 2008, respectively. Key risk factors were identified at sub-district level using bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees model. With both methods, HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in backyard poultry were associated with accessibility in terms of time taken to access a city with >50,000 persons, human population density and duck density (P<. 0.005). In addition, areas at lower elevation were also identified as high risk by BRT model. It is recommended that risk-based surveillance should be implemented in high duck density areas and all live-bird markets in high-throughput locations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)45-57
Number of pages13
JournalSpatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014


  • Disease surveillance
  • Eastern India
  • HPAI H5N1 in poultry
  • Predictive risk modeling
  • Risk factors
  • Spatial and temporal clusters

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