Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa

Abhishek Pandey; Katherine E Atkins; Jan Medlock; Natasha Wenzel; Jeffrey P Townsend; James E Childs; Tolbert G Nyenswah; Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah; Alison P Galvani

doi:10.1126/science.1260612

Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa

Abhishek Pandey, Katherine E Atkins, Jan Medlock, Natasha Wenzel, Jeffrey P Townsend, James E Childs, Tolbert G Nyenswah, Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah, Alison P Galvani

School of Population Health Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	991-955
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	346
Issue number	6212
Early online date	30 Oct 2014
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1260612
Publication status	Published - 21 Nov 2014

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

Africa, Western/epidemiology
Containment of Biohazards/methods
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology
Humans
Models, Theoretical

Access to Document

10.1126/science.1260612

Katie Atkins
- School of Population Health Sciences - Personal Chair of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
- Usher Institute - Chancellor's Fellow
- Centre for Global Health Research
Person: Academic: Research Active

Cite this

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title = "Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa",

abstract = "The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December. ",

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AU - Pandey, Abhishek

AU - Atkins, Katherine E

AU - Medlock, Jan

AU - Wenzel, Natasha

AU - Townsend, Jeffrey P

AU - Childs, James E

AU - Nyenswah, Tolbert G

AU - Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L

AU - Galvani, Alison P

PY - 2014/11/21

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N2 - The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.

AB - The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.

KW - Africa, Western/epidemiology

KW - Containment of Biohazards/methods

KW - Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology

KW - Humans

KW - Models, Theoretical

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Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa

Abstract

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

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Katie Atkins

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