Tens of thousands of additional deaths annually in China cities between 1.5ºC and 2.0ºC warming

Yanjun Wang, Anqian Wang, Jianqing Zhai, Hui Tao, Tong Jiang, Buda Su, Jun Yang, Guojie Wang, Qiyong Liu, Chao Gao, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Mingjin Zhan, Zhiqiang Feng, Thomas Fischer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.
Original languageEnglish
JournalNature Communications
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 Aug 2019

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Tens of thousands of additional deaths annually in China cities between 1.5ºC and 2.0ºC warming'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this