Testing, tracing and isolation in compartmental models

Simone Sturniolo, William Waites, Tim Colbourn, David Manheim, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Existing compartmental mathematical modelling methods for epidemics, such as SEIR models, cannot accurately represent effects of contact tracing. This makes them inappropriate for evaluating testing and contact tracing strategies to contain an outbreak. An alternative used in practice is the application of agent- or individual-based models (ABM). However ABMs are complex, less well-understood and much more computationally expensive. This paper presents a new method for accurately including the effects of Testing, contact-Tracing and Isolation (TTI) strategies in standard compartmental models. We derive our method using a careful probabilistic argument to show how contact tracing at the individual level is reflected in aggregate on the population level. We show that the resultant SEIR-TTI model accurately approximates the behaviour of a mechanistic agent-based model at far less computational cost. The computational efficiency is such that it can be easily and cheaply used for exploratory modelling to quantify the required levels of testing and tracing, alone and with other interventions, to assist adaptive planning for managing disease outbreaks.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere1008633
Number of pages28
JournalPLoS Computational Biology
Volume17
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Mar 2021

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Testing, tracing and isolation in compartmental models'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this