The Bayes' factor: the coherent measure for hypothesis conrmation

Franco Taroni, Silvia Bozza, Paolo Garbolino, Colin Aitken

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

What have been called `Bayesian confirmation measures' or `evidential support measures' offer a numerical expression for the impact of a piece of evidence on a judicial hypothesis of interest. The Bayes' factor, sometimes 8 simply called the `likelihood ratio', represents the best measure of the value of the evidence. It satisfies a number of necessary conditions on normative logical adequacy. It is shown that the same cannot be said for alternative 10 expressions put forward by some legal and forensic quarters. A list of desiderata are given that support the choice of the Bayes' factor as the best measure for quantification of the value of evidence.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages20
JournalLaw, Probability and Risk
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 10 Nov 2021

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