TY - JOUR
T1 - The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy Health Policy
AU - Czypionka, Thomas
AU - Iftekhar, Emil Nafis
AU - Prainsack, Barbara
AU - Priesemann, Viola
AU - Bauer, Simon
AU - Calero Valdez, André
AU - Cuschieri, Sarah
AU - Glaab, Enrico
AU - Grill, Eva
AU - Krutzinna, Jenny
AU - Lionis, Christos
AU - Machado, Helena
AU - Martins, Carlos
AU - Pavlakis, George
AU - Perc, Matjaž
AU - Petelos, Elena
AU - Pickersgill, Martyn
AU - Skupin, Alexander
AU - Schernhammer, Eva
AU - Szczurek, Ewa
AU - Tsiodras, Sotirios
AU - Willeit, Peter
AU - Wilmes, Paul
N1 - Funding Information:
TC was supported by the EU Commission, grant agreement No 101016233 (PERISCOPE). SB was supported by Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin, project egePan (01KX2021). ACV's institution was supported by Ministry of Culture and Science of the German State of North Rhine-Westphalia. EGl was supported by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) with Public funding support with payments to the host institute as part of the COVID-19 Fast-Track grant research project CovScreen (COVID-19/20201/14715687). EGr has received payments for a manuscript on the history of pandemics. JK is employed by a project funded by the European Research Council, European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 724460). CL received grants from the University of Oxford, National Centre for Smoking Cessation and Training, UK, Horizon 2020, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, and Pfizer Inc, royalties from Olvos Science, payment for expert testimony from Word Health Organization and European Commission, has a patent for Cretan Iama Olvos Science, and is on the advisory board for Pfizer Helas and Vianex SA. GNP received grants and royalties from Novartis, FNIH, Gilead Grants, managed through NIH, and is the chair of the Nemitsas Prize Award Committee. MPi was supported by Wellcome Trust [grant numbers: 209519/Z/17/Z; WT106612MA], MRC [grant number: MR/S035818/1], ESRC [grant numbers: ES/T014164/1; ES/S013873/1], and British Academy [EN160164]. ESz's lab receives funding for other projects from Merck Healthcare. ST's institution received grants due to his role as Co-investigator-PI in study under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant Agreement, No 883441, under the agreement and control of the Special Committee for Research Grants of the University of Athens, Athens, Greece. PWilmes’ institution received grants from the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme including the European Research Council (CoG 863664), the Luxembourg National Research Fund, and the University of Luxembourg, and owns patents. PWilmes received honoraria for being on two PhD juries at the University of Copenhagen and for the Maud Menten lecture at the University of Western Ontario, and for membership of the scientific steering committee for a clinical trial by 4D Pharma plc. and he is Co-speaker of the Research Luxembourg COVID-19 Task Force. Vice-president of the Luxembourg Society for Microbiology. All these were unrelated to this article. All other authors declare no competing interests.
Funding Information:
TC has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101016233 (PERISCOPE). VP, SB, and ENI were supported by the Max Planck Society. SB received funding from the "Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin" (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). ACV has received funding from the Digital Society research program funded by the Ministry of Culture and Science of the German State of North Rhine-Westphalia. SC was supported by the University of Malta. EGl acknowledges funding support from the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) as part of the COVID-19 Fast-Track research project CovScreen (COVID-19/2020- 1/14715687). JK has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 724460). CL reports grants from the University of Oxford, the National Centre for Smoking Cessation and Training, Gilead Sciences, Pfizer Inc, and the European Commission's Horizon 2020, unrelated to this paper, all under the agreement and control of the Special Committee for Research Grants of the University of Crete, Greece. HM was supported by the University of Minho. GNP's contribution is in his personal capacity; the opinions expressed are the author's own and do not reflect the views of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Department of Health and Human Services, or the US Government. GNP's patents and company interactions are managed through the NIH. MPe was supported by the Slovenian Research Agency (Grant Nos. P1-0403 and J1-2457). EP's contribution is in her personal capacity, the opinions expressed are the author's own, EP acknowledges support from the University of Crete and from Maastricht University, and from multiple funding instruments of the European Commission. MPi is currently supported by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) [ES/T014164/1], UK Medical Research Council (MRC) [MR/S035818/1], Leverhulme Trust [RPG-2020-295] and Wellcome Trust [209519/Z/17/Z; 106612/Z/14/Z]. ESz acknowledges funding by the Polish National Science Centre OPUS grant no 2019/33/B/NZ2/00956. PWilmes acknowledges funding support from the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) as part of the COVID-19 Fast-Track research project CO-INFECTOMICS (COVID-19/2020-1/14729513) and from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 863664). All other authors have no funding source to declare.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors
PY - 2022/2/1
Y1 - 2022/2/1
N2 - In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure ‘test-trace-isolate-support’ becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.
AB - In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure ‘test-trace-isolate-support’ becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.
U2 - 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100294
DO - 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100294
M3 - Article
C2 - 35005678
SN - 2666-7762
VL - 13
SP - 100294
JO - The Lancet Regional Health Europe
JF - The Lancet Regional Health Europe
ER -