The effect of new information on expert perception of risk in carbon capture and storage

This paper describes the evolving perception of risk during a carbon capture and storage project. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is potentially an important technology for reducing emissions of CO₂, one of the key greenhouse gases. In CCS the CO₂ generated by large point-source emitters (e.g. power stations) is captured and transported to a storage site where it is injected into the Earth's subsurface and stored in the pore space of rock. A complete simulation of the capture, transport and storage of CO ₂, from a coal fired power station to saline reservoir storage site was carried out over the course of a project. Throughout the process, a project specific risk register is used to track the experts' perception of risk. The results show that the experts' perception of risk changed in the short term due to this information, but that their perception of risk did not necessarily change permanently. In some cases, over time it seemed to return to levels perceived prior to seeing the new information. Overall, uncertainty was the key factor in influencing perception of risk, and reducing uncertainty is required if the perception of risk is to decrease also.