The Future of GB Electricity Supply: Carbon Neutral Impact on Electricity Wholesale Price

Decarbonizing the energy system to emit fewer GHGs is vital for reducing the extent of global climate change. UK National Grid has outlined two credible energy future scenarios to describe how to establish a net-zero carbon emission power system by 2050, but did not analyze the purposed system impact on the wholesale price. This paper addressed a merit order stack (MOS) model to demonstrate the spread and volatility of hourly wholesale prices. The model involves not only different generation types but also battery storage and interconnections between the UK and other countries. Case studies are conducted in two net zero scenarios, with four typical weeks so that each one represents one season. Numerical simulation results show that in one net zero scenario, the community renewable, the wholesale electricity price will largely be driven by renewables but also impact by nuclear and EU interconnections. It even seems possible to only use wind power to balance the UK national demand for few hours in winter. In other seasons, this scenario requests electricity importation from the European continent to balance the load. In another scenario Two Degree, the existence of gas CCS technology could reduce carbon emissions, leading to a lower short-term marginal cost, therefore the wholesale price often equals the marginal cost of gas CCS or imported electricity price from Europe no matter which season. But the price could rise to higher level if wind power shortages occur.