The influence of terrestrial ecosystems on climate

Terrestrial ecosystems influence climate by affecting how much solar energy is absorbed by the land surface and by exchanging climatically important gases with the atmosphere. Recent model analyses show widespread qualitative agreement that terrestrial ecological processes will have a net positive feedback effect on 21st-century global warming, and, therefore, cannot be ignored in climate-change projections. However, the quantitative uncertainty in the net feedback is large. The uncertainty in 21st-century carbon dioxide emissions resulting from terrestrial carbon cycle–climate feedbacks is second in magnitude only to the uncertainty in anthropogenic emissions. We estimate that this translates into an uncertainty in global warming owing to the land surface of 1.5°C by 2100. We also emphasise the need to improve our understanding of terrestrial ecological processes that influence land–atmosphere interactions at relatively long timescales (decadal–century) as well as at shorter intervals (e.g. hourly).