The interplay of social constraints and individual variation in risk tolerance in the emergence of superspreaders

Matthew J. Young*, Matthew J. Silk, Alexander J. Pritchard, Nina H. Fefferman

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract / Description of output

Individual host behaviours can drastically impact the spread of infection through a population. Differences in the value individuals place on both socializing with others and avoiding infection have been shown to yield emergent homophily in social networks and thereby shape epidemic outcomes. We build on this understanding to explore how individuals who do not conform to their social surroundings contribute to the propagation of infection during outbreaks. We show how non-conforming individuals, even if they do not directly expose a disproportionate number of other individuals themselves, can become functional super spreaders through an emergent social structure that positions them as the functional links by which infection jumps between otherwise separate communities. Our results can help estimate the potential success of real-world interventions that may be compromised by a small number of non-conformists if their impact is not anticipated, and plan for how best to mitigate their effects on intervention success.
Original languageEnglish
Article number20230077
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of The Royal Society Interface
Volume20
Issue number205
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 Aug 2023
Externally publishedYes

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

  • Epidemic modelling
  • Game theory
  • Heterogeneous population
  • Superspreaders

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