The relative contribution of increasing incidence and declining mortality to increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Scotland is unclear. We describe trends in incidence and mortality rates for type 2 diabetes between 2004 and 2013 in Scotland by age, sex and socio-economic deprivation.
Data for incident and prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes were obtained from the national Scottish diabetes register with number of deaths identified from linkage to mortality records. Population size and death data for Scotland by age, sex and socio-economic deprivation were obtained from National Records of Scotland. Age and sex-specific incidence and mortality rates stratified by year and deciles of socio-economic status were calculated using Poisson models.
There were 180,290 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013. Overall, incidence of type 2 diabetes remained stable over time and was 4.88 (95% confidence interval: 4.84, 4.90) and 3.33 (3.28, 3.32) per 1,000 in men and women, respectively. However, incidence increased among young men, remained stable in young women and declined in older men and women. Incidence rates declined in all socio-economic groups but increased after 2008 in the most deprived groups. Standardised mortality ratios associated with diabetes, adjusted for age and socio-economic group was 1.38 (1.36, 1.41) in men and 1.49 (1.45, 1.52) in women and remained constant over time.
Incidence of type 2 diabetes has stabilised in recent years suggesting that increasing prevalence may be primarily attributed to declining mortality. Prevention of type 2 diabetes remains important, particularly among socio-economically deprived populations.
- socioeconomic aspects
- prediction and prevention of type 2 diabetes
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- Deanery of Molecular, Genetic and Population Health Sciences - Personal Chair of Epidemiology
- Global Health Academy
- Usher Institute
- Centre for Population Health Sciences
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