Abstract
Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Article number | 084002 |
Journal | Environmental Research Letters |
Volume | 12 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 21 Jul 2017 |
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Datasets
-
Scenarios of shifts in GEnS bioclimate strata based on CIMP5 climate change scenarios for 2050
Metzger, M. (Creator), Soteriades, A. (Creator), Trabucco, A. (Creator) & Murray-Rust, D. (Creator), Edinburgh DataShare, 3 May 2017
DOI: 10.7488/ds/2005
Dataset
Profiles
-
Marc J Metzger
- School of Geosciences - Personal Chair of Environment and Society
- Global Environment and Society Academy
- Centre for Sustainable Forests and Landscapes
Person: Academic: Research Active