Unit roots and British industrial growth, 1923-92

D Greasley, L Oxley

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The statistical properties and historical characteristics of British industrial production are examined. Since 1923 production appears to follow a segmented trend stationary process. Prior historical information and recursive searching are used to identify discontinuities in 1973 and 1979. The wartime shift to fuller employment was accompanied by a productivity crash, and trend industrial growth changed little. The major shift in production trend was at the time of the 1973 oil shock. Discontinuity around 1979 took the form of a crash, and accelerating productivity contributed to industrial employment collapsing to levels not experienced since the nineteenth century.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)192-212
Number of pages21
JournalManchester school of economic and social studies
Volume65
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 1997

Keywords

  • TIME-SERIES
  • BRITAIN
  • OUTPUT
  • TRENDS
  • REVOLUTION
  • 1930S

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