Urban fire spread modelling: a review of dynamic computational models and potential for application to informal settlement fires

Computational urban fire spread modelling techniques have scope for being utilised in fire risk quantification and for developing fire spread mitigation measures. Historically, most have been developed in the context of post-earthquake fire spread, but the numerical principles behind the fundamental mechanisms – namely fire development within, and fire spread to and from, buildings – are clearly applicable in other contexts. This paper reviews the state of the art of large-scale urban fire spread modelling and discusses its applicability primarily to the relatively new context of informal settlement fires. A particular focus is given to the methods by which researchers have previously conceptualised key fire spread mechanisms. Overall, it was found that existing models provide a reasonable platform for future development. However, robust modelling will depend on better conceptualisation of key submodels, particularly the modelling of external flame and ignition by radiation and flame impingement.