@article{437c685074924b519ec03933f61cab47,
title = "Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies",
abstract = "Case isolation and contact tracing can contribute to the control of COVID-19 outbreaks1,2. However, it remains unclear how real-world social networks could influence the effectiveness and efficiency of such approaches. To address this issue, we simulated control strategies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a real-world social network generated from high-resolution GPS data that were gathered in the course of a citizen-science experiment3,4. We found that tracing the contacts of contacts reduced the size of simulated outbreaks more than tracing of only contacts, but this strategy also resulted in almost half of the local population being quarantined at a single point in time. Testing and releasing non-infectious individuals from quarantine led to increases in outbreak size, suggesting that contact tracing and quarantine might be most effective as a {\textquoteleft}local lockdown{\textquoteright} strategy when contact rates are high. Finally, we estimated that combining physical distancing with contact tracing could enable epidemic control while reducing the number of quarantined individuals. Our findings suggest that targeted tracing and quarantine strategies would be most efficient when combined with other control measures such as physical distancing.",
author = "Firth, {Josh A.} and Joel Hellewell and Petra Klepac and Stephen Kissler and {CMMID COVID-19 Working Group} and Mark Jit and Atkins, {Katherine E.} and Samuel Clifford and Villabona-Arenas, {C. Julian} and Meakin, {Sophie R.} and Charlie Diamond and Bosse, {Nikos I.} and Munday, {James D.} and Kiesha Prem and Foss, {Anna M.} and Nightingale, {Emily S.} and Zandvoort, {Kevin van} and Davies, {Nicholas G.} and Gibbs, {Hamish P.} and Graham Medley and Amy Gimma and Stefan Flasche and David Simons and Megan Auzenbergs and Russell, {Timothy W.} and Quilty, {Billy J.} and Rees, {Eleanor M.} and Leclerc, {Quentin J.} and Edmunds, {W. John} and Sebastian Funk and Houben, {Rein M.G.J.} and Knight, {Gwenan M.} and Sam Abbott and Sun, {Fiona Yueqian} and Rachel Lowe and Tully, {Damien C.} and Procter, {Simon R.} and Jarvis, {Christopher I.} and Akira Endo and Kathleen O{\textquoteright}Reilly and Emery, {Jon C.} and Thibaut Jombart and Alicia Rosello and Deol, {Arminder K.} and Matthew Quaife and St{\'e}phane Hu{\'e} and Yang Liu and Eggo, {Rosalind M.} and Pearson, {Carl A.B.} and Kucharski, {Adam J.} and Spurgin, {Lewis G.}",
note = "Funding Information: This work was instigated through the Royal Society{\textquoteright}s Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic (RAMP) scheme. We thank M. Pointer for helpful discussions throughout and C. van Oosterhout and J. Gog for comments on the manuscript. We thank all those in Haslemere who took part in the BBC Pandemic study. We thank H. Fry and 360 Production, especially D. Peck and C. Kinnear, for making possible the collection of the dataset that underlies this work and A. Conlan, M. Tang and J. Gog for their contribution to the BBC study. J.A.F. was supported by a research fellowship from Merton College and BBSRC (BB/S009752/1) and acknowledges funding from NERC (NE/S010335/1). P.K. was in part funded by the Royal Society under award RP\EA\180004 and the European Commission (101003688). A.J.K. was supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant 206250/Z/17/Z). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.",
year = "2020",
month = aug,
day = "7",
doi = "10.1038/s41591-020-1036-8",
language = "English",
volume = "26",
pages = "1616--1622",
journal = "Nature Medicine",
issn = "1078-8956",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "10",
}