Using prediction markets and Twitter to predict a swine flu pandemic

Joshua Ritterman, Miles Osborne, Ewan Klein

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract / Description of output

We explore the hypothesis that social media such as Twitter encodes the belief of a large number of people about some concrete statement about the world. Here, these beliefs are aggregated using a Prediction Market specifically concerning the possibility of a Swine Flu Pandemic in 2009. Using a regression framework, we are able to show that simple features extracted from Tweets can reduce the error associated with modelling these beliefs. Our approach is also shown to outperform some baseline methods based purely on time-series information from the Market.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 1st International Workshop of Mining Social Media
Pages9-17
Number of pages9
Publication statusPublished - 2009

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