Using prediction markets and Twitter to predict a swine flu pandemic

Joshua Ritterman; Miles Osborne; Ewan Klein

Using prediction markets and Twitter to predict a swine flu pandemic

Joshua Ritterman, Miles Osborne, Ewan Klein

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Abstract

We explore the hypothesis that social media such as Twitter encodes the belief of a large number of people about some concrete statement about the world. Here, these beliefs are aggregated using a Prediction Market specifically concerning the possibility of a Swine Flu Pandemic in 2009. Using a regression framework, we are able to show that simple features extracted from Tweets can reduce the error associated with modelling these beliefs. Our approach is also shown to outperform some baseline methods based purely on time-series information from the Market.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop of Mining Social Media
Pages	9-17
Number of pages	9
Publication status	Published - 2009

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Ritterman Osborne Klein 2009 Using Prediction Markets and Twitter to Predict a Swine Flu PandemicAccepted author manuscript, 246 KB

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title = "Using prediction markets and Twitter to predict a swine flu pandemic",

abstract = "We explore the hypothesis that social media such as Twitter encodes the belief of a large number of people about some concrete statement about the world. Here, these beliefs are aggregated using a Prediction Market specifically concerning the possibility of a Swine Flu Pandemic in 2009. Using a regression framework, we are able to show that simple features extracted from Tweets can reduce the error associated with modelling these beliefs. Our approach is also shown to outperform some baseline methods based purely on time-series information from the Market.",

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BT - Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop of Mining Social Media

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Using prediction markets and Twitter to predict a swine flu pandemic

Abstract

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