TY - JOUR
T1 - West Antarctic Surface Climate Changes Since the Mid‐20th Century Driven by Anthropogenic Forcing
AU - Dalaiden, Quentin
AU - Schurer, Andrew P.
AU - Kirchmeier‐young, Megan C.
AU - Goosse, Hugues
AU - Hegerl, Gabriele C.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors thank William Hobbs and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments, which greatly helped to improve our manuscript. QD is a Research Fellow within the F.R.S.‐FNRS (Belgium). G.H. and A.S. were funded by the NERC project GloSAT (NE/S015698/1). A.S. further received funding from a Chancellors fellowship at the University of Edinburgh. HG is a Research Director within the F.R.S.‐FNRS (Belgium). This work was partly supported by the Belgian Research Action through Interdisciplinary Networks (BRAIN‐be) from the Belgian Science Policy Office in the framework of the project “East Antarctic surface mass balance in the Anthropocene: observations and multiscale modelling (Mass2Ant)” (contract no. BR/165/A2/Mass2Ant).
Funding Information:
The authors thank William Hobbs and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments, which greatly helped to improve our manuscript. QD is a Research Fellow within the F.R.S.-FNRS (Belgium). G.H. and A.S. were funded by the NERC project GloSAT (NE/S015698/1). A.S. further received funding from a Chancellors fellowship at the University of Edinburgh. HG is a Research Director within the F.R.S.-FNRS (Belgium). This work was partly supported by the Belgian Research Action through Interdisciplinary Networks (BRAIN-be) from the Belgian Science Policy Office in the framework of the project “East Antarctic surface mass balance in the Anthropocene: observations and multiscale modelling (Mass2Ant)” (contract no. BR/165/A2/Mass2Ant).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2022/8/28
Y1 - 2022/8/28
N2 - Although the West Antarctic surface climate has experienced large changes over the past decades with widespread surface warming, an overall increase in snow accumulation and a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low, the exact role of human activities in these changes has not yet been fully investigated, which limits confidence in future projections. Here, we perform a detection and attribution analysis using instrumental and proxy-based reconstructions, and two large climate model simulation ensembles to quantify the forced response in these observed changes. We show that surface climate changes since the 1950s were driven by anthropogenic forcing, in particular the greenhouse gas forcing and stratospheric ozone depletion. Therefore, our results indicate that the 21st century changes will depend on both the greenhouse gas emissions and the ozone layer recovery.
AB - Although the West Antarctic surface climate has experienced large changes over the past decades with widespread surface warming, an overall increase in snow accumulation and a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low, the exact role of human activities in these changes has not yet been fully investigated, which limits confidence in future projections. Here, we perform a detection and attribution analysis using instrumental and proxy-based reconstructions, and two large climate model simulation ensembles to quantify the forced response in these observed changes. We show that surface climate changes since the 1950s were driven by anthropogenic forcing, in particular the greenhouse gas forcing and stratospheric ozone depletion. Therefore, our results indicate that the 21st century changes will depend on both the greenhouse gas emissions and the ozone layer recovery.
U2 - 10.1029/2022GL099543
DO - 10.1029/2022GL099543
M3 - Article
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 49
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 16
M1 - e2022GL099543
ER -