Projects per year
Abstract
We propose two methods for short term forecasting of wind direction with the aim to provide input for tactic decisions during yacht races. The wind direction measured in the past minutes is used as input and the wind direction for the next two minutes constitutes the output. The two methods are based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM), respectively. For both methods we optimise the length of the moving average that we use to pre- process the input data, the length of the input vector and, for the ANN only, the number of neurons of each layer. The forecast is evaluated by looking at the mean absolute error and at a mean effectiveness index, which assesses the percentage of times that the forecast is accurate enough to predict the correct tactical choice in a sailing yacht race. The ANN forecast based on the ensemble average of ten networks shows a larger mean absolute error and a similar mean effectiveness index than the SVM forecast. However, we showed that the ANN forecast accuracy increases significantly with the size of the ensemble. Therefore increasing the computational power, it can lead to a better forecast.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 65-73 |
Journal | Ocean Engineering |
Volume | 97 |
Issue number | 15 |
Publication status | Published - 2015 |
Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)
- wind forecast
- support vector machines
- artificial neural networks
- sailing yacht
- race
- tactics
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'Wind direction forecasting with artificial neural networks and support vector machines'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 2 Finished
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Sailing Fluids: TRANSFER: Sailing Fluids: An EU - New Zealand Research Collaboration to Develop Synergies and Make Cutting-edge Breakthroughs in Yacht Engineering
Viola, I. M. (Principal Investigator) & Tagliaferri, F. (Student)
1/10/13 → 30/09/16
Project: Research
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Optima Tactica: Dynamic yacht strategy optimisation
Viola, I. M. (Principal Investigator) & Tagliaferri, F. (Student)
1/09/11 → 1/09/15
Project: Project from a former institution
Research output
- 1 Article
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A real-time strategy-decision program for sailing yacht races
Tagliaferri, F. & Viola, I. M., Apr 2017, In: Ocean Engineering. 134, p. 129 139 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Open AccessFile
Profiles
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Ignazio Maria Viola
- School of Engineering - Professor of Fluid Mechanics and Bioinspired Engineering
Person: Academic: Research Active