Year-to-year variation in attack rates could result in underpowered RSV vaccine efficacy trials

Marie N Billard, Joanne G Wildenbeest, Louis Bont, Harish Nair, John P McCracken, Katrien Oude Rengerink

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Objectives: Year-to-year variation in respiratory viruses may result in lower attack rates than expected. We aimed to illustrate the impact of year-to-year variation in attack rates on the likelihood of demonstrating vaccine efficacy (VE). Study Design and Setting: We considered an individually randomized maternal vaccine trial against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated hospitalizations. For 10 RSV-associated hospitalizations per 1,000 infants, sample size to have 80% power for true VE of 50% and 70% was 9,846 and 4,424 participants. We reported power to show VE for varying attack rates, selected to reflect realistic year-to-year variation using observational studies. Eight scenarios including varying number of countries and seasons were developed to assess the influence of these trial parameters. Results: Including up to three seasons decreased the width of the interquartile range for power. Including more seasons concentrated statistical power closer to 80%. Least powered trials had higher statistical power with more seasons. In all scenarios, at least half of the trials had <80% power. For three-season trials, increasing the sample size by 10% reduced the percentage of underpowered trials to less than one-quarter of trials. Conclusion: Year-to-year variation in RSV attack rates should be accounted for during trial design. Mitigation strategies include recruiting over more seasons, or adaptive trial designs.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)11-20
JournalJournal of Clinical Epidemiology
Volume147
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 23 Feb 2022

Keywords

  • Attack rate
  • Incidence
  • RSV
  • Sample size
  • Seasonality
  • Statistical power

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