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Expectation propagation for continuous time stochastic processes

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Original languageEnglish
Article number494002
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical
Publication statusPublished - 14 Nov 2016


We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajectories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive approximations to the posterior distributions of single time marginals using variational approximate inference. We then show how the approximation can be extended to a wide class of discrete-state Markov jump processes by making use of the chemical Langevin equation. Our empirical results show that the proposed method is computationally efficient and provides good approximations for these
classes of inverse problems.

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